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Hopkins' chromatic splitting conjecture (weak and odd-prime strong forms)

Weak form: for the derived pp-completion X=Sp∧X=S_p^\wedge, the canonical map Ln−1X→Ln−1LK(n)XL_{n-1}X\to L_{n-1}L_{K(n)}X has no homotopy retraction at height n=pn=p for every p≥5p\ge5 and at n=p+1n=p+1 for every p≥7p\ge7; the class β1(p−1)2\beta_1^{(p-1)^2} is a nonzero kernel element (at p=5p=5, β116\beta_1^{16} in degree 608). Strong form: for p≥5p\ge5 the map L0LK(3)S→L0LK(2)LK(3)SL_0L_{K(3)}S\to L_0L_{K(2)}L_{K(3)}S is nonzero on π−3\pi_{-3}, so the height-three splitting fails even as an equivalence of E(2)E(2)-local spectra. Companions: at n=p=3n=p=3 the overlap is not in the thick subcategory generated by L0S,L1S,L2SL_0S,L_1S,L_2S; positively, for p>n+1p>n+1 the overlap has a 2n2^n-stage filtration with the predicted cofibers (nonsplit), with explicit attachments at height three. Heights below p−1p-1 remain open.

Exact FrontierDelta

Prior state unknown→disproved

Scope and record

Occurred: Sep 27, 2026

Delta type: SOURCE CLAIM

Assumptions: VibeMathed verification: unreviewed. Publication: announcement. AI contribution: ai-discovered. VibeMathed editorial classifications, scores, notes, relations, and dataset structure are CC BY 4.0. Source statements and linked content retain their own rights.

Canonical aliases: Hopkins' chromatic splitting conjecture (weak and odd-prime strong forms) · Chromatic splitting conjecture

Confidence: Not scored

Registry verification: unreviewed · announcement · candidate

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Unreleased internal OpenAI model
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Lineage and corrections

Hopkins' chromatic splitting conjecture (weak and odd-prime strong forms) evidence for this event

This event attributed to Unreleased internal OpenAI model

A rational obstruction to strong chromatic splitting at height three evidence for this event

Hovey, Bousfield localization functors and Hopkins' chromatic splitting conjecture (1995) evidence for this event

Failure of finite assembly for a chromatic overlap at the prime three evidence for this event

VibeMathed record: Hopkins' chromatic splitting conjecture (weak and odd-prime strong forms) evidence for this event

Weak form: for the derived pp-completion X=Sp∧X=S_p^\wedge, the canonical map Ln−1X→Ln−1LK(n)XL_{n-1}X\to L_{n-1}L_{K(n)}X has no homotopy retraction at height n=pn=p for every p≥5p\ge5 and at n=p+1n=p+1 for every p≥7p\ge7; the class β1(p−1)2\beta_1^{(p-1)^2} is a nonzero kernel element (at p=5p=5, β116\beta_1^{16} in degree 608). Strong form: for p≥5p\ge5 the map L0LK(3)S→L0LK(2)LK(3)SL_0L_{K(3)}S\to L_0L_{K(2)}L_{K(3)}S is nonzero on π−3\pi_{-3}, so the height-three splitting fails even as an equivalence of E(2)E(2)-local spectra. Companions: at n=p=3n=p=3 the overlap is not in the thick subcategory generated by L0S,L1S,L2SL_0S,L_1S,L_2S; positively, for p>n+1p>n+1 the overlap has a 2n2^n-stage filtration with the predicted cofibers (nonsplit), with explicit attachments at height three. Heights below p−1p-1 remain open. parent of this event

The height-three chromatic overlap: an explicit filtration and its attachments evidence for this event

Filtered chromatic splitting at generic primes evidence for this event

Hopkins' chromatic splitting conjecture (weak and odd-prime strong forms) parent of this event

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