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Talagrand's discrete convexity conjecture

Theorem 1.1: with k=275k=2^{75}, for every N≥1N\ge1, p∈(0,1)p\in(0,1) and D⊆2[N]\mathcal D\subseteq2^{[N]}, μp(D)≥1−1/k\mu_p(\mathcal D)\ge1-1/k implies Ek(D)E_k(\mathcal D) is pp-small. Consequences: a containment cover for large values of positive selector processes (recovering Park-Pham's theorem), and with Li's fractional result and the companion rounding theorem, E2(D)E_2(\mathcal D) is (p/C)(p/C)-small when μp(D)>1/2\mu_p(\mathcal D)>1/2. Earlier, Hua-Song-Tudose derived a discrete statement with three unions at density pCp^C and Park one with two unions at a log⁡log⁡(1/p)\log\log(1/p) loss. The constant kk is far from optimal and the Gaussian convexity question is a different problem.

Exact FrontierDelta

Prior state unknown→proved

Scope and record

Occurred: Sep 23, 2026

Delta type: SOURCE CLAIM

Assumptions: VibeMathed verification: lean-checked. Publication: announcement. AI contribution: ai-discovered. VibeMathed editorial classifications, scores, notes, relations, and dataset structure are CC BY 4.0. Source statements and linked content retain their own rights.

Canonical aliases: Talagrand's discrete convexity conjecture

Confidence: Not scored

Registry verification: lean checked · announcement · candidate

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Unreleased internal OpenAI model
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Lean proof (OAI.TalagrandDiscreteConvexity.talagrand_discrete_convexity)

lean artifact · pending

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VibeMathed record: Talagrand's discrete convexity conjecture evidence for this event

This event attributed to Unreleased internal OpenAI model

Input: Talagrand's discrete-convexity conjecture evidence for this event

Talagrand's discrete convexity conjecture parent of this event

Lean proof (OAI.TalagrandDiscreteConvexity.talagrand_discrete_convexity) evidence for this event

Family: Integral and fractional expectation thresholds are equivalent evidence for this event

Talagrand, Are many small sets explicitly small? (STOC 2010) evidence for this event

Theorem 1.1: with k=275k=2^{75}, for every N≥1N\ge1, p∈(0,1)p\in(0,1) and D⊆2[N]\mathcal D\subseteq2^{[N]}, μp(D)≥1−1/k\mu_p(\mathcal D)\ge1-1/k implies Ek(D)E_k(\mathcal D) is pp-small. Consequences: a containment cover for large values of positive selector processes (recovering Park-Pham's theorem), and with Li's fractional result and the companion rounding theorem, E2(D)E_2(\mathcal D) is (p/C)(p/C)-small when μp(D)>1/2\mu_p(\mathcal D)>1/2. Earlier, Hua-Song-Tudose derived a discrete statement with three unions at density pCp^C and Park one with two unions at a log⁡log⁡(1/p)\log\log(1/p) loss. The constant kk is far from optimal and the Gaussian convexity question is a different problem. parent of this event

The Ascoli-He-Park-Talagrand graph-decomposition conjecture at the expectation threshold evidence for this event

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