Data-Driven Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Migration Dynamics During the Russian-Ukrainian War

Source abstract

In this work, we employ a governing system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to create a mathematical model for getting insights into the dynamics of migration of Ukrainians evacuating due to war. A suitable assumption on coefficients of this model results in the well-known logistic growth. Additionally, stability analyses of equilibrium solutions for these ODEs are performed, and we employ parameter estimation techniques to identify coefficients using online datasets via both a least-squares approach as well as a physics informed neural network approach. Our findings indicate that over time, the daily influx of Ukrainian refugees to Poland stabilizes at a constant rate, represented by an asymptotically stable equilibrium solution.