Markov Chain CLTs: Resolving Open Problems

Source abstract

Markov chain central limit theorems (CLTs) and their associated variances are very important for implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms among other applications. Häggström and Rosenthal (2007) presented various results regarding the equality of different formulae for this variance and also posed seven open problems. We resolve all seven in this paper. For stationary, ergodic and reversible chains, we prove that whenever the normalized partial sums satisfy a $\sqrt{n}$-CLT, the variance limit is finite if the function is square-integrable, otherwise undefined. Moreover, failure of the $\sqrt{n}$-CLT forces the normalized partial sums to be non-tight. We also show that Roberts' holding-probability condition precludes a CLT even without assuming reversibility or square-integrability. Finally, we develop a general principle that expresses Fourier coefficients as the autocovariances of an ergodic nonreversible Markov chain.