A Nonlinear Cross-Diffusion Model for Disease Spread: Turing Instability and Pattern Formation

Source abstract

In this article, we propose a novel nonlinear cross-diffusion framework to model the distribution of susceptible and infected individuals within their habitat using a reduced SIR model that incorporates saturated incidence and treatment rates. The study investigates solution boundedness through the theory of parabolic partial differential equations, thereby validating the proposed spatio-temporal model. Through the implementation of the suggested cross-diffusion mechanism, the model reveals at least one non-constant positive equilibrium state within the susceptible–infected (SI) system. This work demonstrates the potential coexistence of susceptible and infected populations through cross-diffusion and unveils Turing instability within the system. By analyzing codimension-2 Turing–Hopf bifurcation, the study identifies the Turing space within the spatial context. In addition, we explore the results for Turing–Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation. To account for seasonal disease variations, novel perturbations are introduced. Comprehensive numerical simulations illustrate diverse emerging patterns in the Turing space, including holes, strips, and their mixtures. Additionally, the study identifies non-Turing and Turing–Bogdanov–Takens patterns for specific parameter selections. Spatial series and surfaces are graphed to enhance the clarity of the pattern results. This research provides theoretical insights into the implications of cross-diffusion in epidemic modeling, particularly in contexts characterized by localized mobility, clinically evident infections, and community-driven isolation behaviors.