Mathematical Modeling and Control Strategies for Nipah Virus Transmission Incorporating Bat-To-Pig-To-Human Pathway

Source abstract

The mathematical modeling of Nipah virus transmission, incorporating the bat-to-pig-to-human pathway, is essential for understanding this disease dynamics and optimizing control measures. Nipah virus, which naturally resides in animals, particularly fruit bats, spreads to humans via intermediate hosts like pigs. This research work highlights the significance of including this pathway in mathematical models for several crucial reasons. Firstly, it aids in comprehending zoonotic transmission, essential for designing effective control strategies. Secondly, it facilitates early detection and intervention by encompassing bats, pigs, and humans in the model. Monitoring factors such as bat population dynamics, pig infections, and human exposure enables timely intervention to prevent or mitigate outbreaks. Moreover, the complexity of Nipah virus transmission involving multiple species underscores the need for multifaceted control measures. We present a detailed mathematical model for Nipah virus transmission, including equations for human, pig, and bird populations. The model is rigorously analyzed, including the calculation of the basic reproduction number, the local stability of disease-free equilibrium, and the global stability of the equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify parameters with the most significant impact on disease dynamics. Optimal control strategies for the Nipah virus, incorporating personal prevention, treatment, biosecurity, and public health interventions, are developed and analyzed. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of these control measures in reducing human and pig infections.