Mathematical Simulations of the Pertussis Epidemic in England
Igor Nesteruk
Source record
Source: Crossref
Published: Oct 5, 2024
DOI: 10.55056/ceur-ws.org/vol-3777/paper13.pdf
Open original source ↗Source abstract
The resurgence of pertussis (whooping cough) becomes a serious problem in many countries including the UK. Differentiation of the accumulated monthly numbers of pertussis cases registered in England in 2023 and 2024 revealed two waves of the epidemic before and after October 2023. Identification of parameters of SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) model allowed calculating the numbers of infectious persons and reproduction rates. The accumulated and daily numbers of cases and the duration of the first wave were predicted. Since the effective reproduction number is very close to its critical value 1.0, the probably of new outbreaks is very high. May be the, increase of percentage of vaccinated people could decrease this probability.
Evidence graph
No public relationships recorded yet.
Integrity note: This page is a factual metadata record created by deterministic ingestion. It is not a claim that the work moves a mathematical frontier or has been independently verified.