Hierarchical Multi-Scale Decomposition and Deep Learning Ensemble Framework for Enhanced Carbon Emission Prediction

Source abstract

Carbon emission prediction is critical for climate change mitigation across industrial, transportation, and urban sectors. Traditional statistical and machine learning methods struggle to capture complex multi-scale temporal patterns and long-range dependencies in emission data. This paper proposes a hierarchical multi-scale decomposition and deep learning ensemble framework that addresses these limitations. We integrate complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) to decompose carbon emission time series into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) capturing different frequency bands. Each IMF is processed through a hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN)–Transformer architecture: CNNs extract local features and transformers model long-range dependencies via multi-head attention. An adaptive ensemble mechanism dynamically weights component predictions based on stability and performance metrics. Experiments on four real-world datasets (133,225 observations) demonstrate that our CEEMDAN–CNN–Transformer framework outperforms 12 state-of-the-art methods, achieving a 13.3% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) to 0.117, 12.7% improvement in mean absolute error (MAE) to 0.088, and 13.0% improvement in continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to 0.060. The proposed framework not only improves predictive accuracy, but also enhances interpretability by revealing emission patterns across multiple temporal scales, supporting both operational and strategic carbon management decisions.