A Climate-Based Malaria Transmission Model with Structured Vector Population

Source abstract

In this paper, we present a malaria transmission model with periodic birth rate and age structure for the vector population. We first introduce the basic reproduction ratio for this model and then show that there exists at least one positive periodic state and that the disease persists when $\mathcal{R}_0>1$. It is also shown that the disease will die out if $\mathcal{R}_0<1$, provided that the invasion intensity is not strong. We further use these analytic results to study the malaria transmission cases in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. Some sensitivity analysis of $\mathcal{R}_0$ is performed, and in particular, the potential impact of climate change on seasonal transmission and populations at risk of the disease is analyzed.