Verification of a mathematical model for the territorial distribution of potato farming (case study of Russian regions)
V. N. Ozherelyev, A. O. Nikitina
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Source: Crossref
Published: Jun 30, 2026
DOI: 10.20914/2310-1202-2026-2-20-27
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The article presents the results of an empirical verification of a previously developed mathematical model that allows predicting the efficiency of potato production in different regions, taking into account agroclimatic and macroeconomic factors. Based on data from 23 regions of Central Russia for 2000–2023, a strong correlation was established between the relative cost calculated by the model and the actual dynamics of potato gross harvests. It has been confirmed that the optimum zone for commercial potato farming has shifted to the Bryansk, Tula, and Nizhny Novgorod regions, which is consistent with the model's theoretical conclusions regarding changes in climatic conditions. The obtained results testify to the high prognostic value of the model and the possibility of its use for strategic planning in the agro-industrial complex. The paper provides a detailed analysis of global potato production trends for the period 2000–2024. It shows that Russia, following the global trend in developed countries, reduced its gross harvest by 37.4%, while simultaneously decreasing the sown area from 2.834 million hectares to 1.075 million hectares. Profound regional differentiation is revealed: against the backdrop of a general decline, three regions (Bryansk, Tula, and Nizhny Novgorod Oblasts) demonstrated production growth of 179.3%, 125.7%, and 114.3%, respectively. It is established that it is in these regions that the share of private household plots in the gross harvest is minimal (from 12.4% to 36.2%), indicating the industrialization of potato farming. The determination coefficient (R² = 0.7312) confirms that the model explains more than 73% of the variance in regional changes. The extreme drought of 2010 served as a natural experiment: in the Bryansk region, crop yields declined by only 17.5% (compared to an average decline of 38% for the Central Federal District), confirming the adequacy of the moisture availability and drought risk factors factored into the model. The verification results allow the model to be recommended for substantiating investment decisions, assessing the effectiveness of government support, and developing strategies for the spatial distribution of potato farming in a changing climate.
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