A Guide to Single Changepoint Tests for the Climate Researcher

Source abstract

Abstract Single changepoint tests have become a staple check for the homogeneity of climate time series, suggesting how climate has changed should nonhomogeneity be declared. This paper summarizes the most prominent single changepoint tests used in contemporary climate literature, relating them to one another and unifying their presentations. Asymptotic quantiles for the individual tests are presented. Derivations of the quantiles are given, enabling the reader to tackle cases not considered within. Our work here studies both mean and linear trend shifts, covering the most common settings arising in climatology. Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and global temperature series are analyzed within to illustrate the techniques. Significance Statement This manuscript quantifies and unifies single changepoint statistical tests for changes in the mean and/or slope (linear trend) of climate time series. The most common tests used in current climate literature are linked, and their asymptotic quantiles are derived. The intent is to unify the climate practitioner’s work with single changepoint methods.