Economic and mathematical modeling of recovery trajectories of the economic capacity of construction development enterprises following destabilizing impacts

Source abstract

The article develops a framework for economic and mathematical modeling of recovery trajectories of construction development enterprises after destabilizing impacts. The purpose is to formalize not only terminal capacity but also the economic quality of the path from a post-shock minimum to an admissible configuration. The methodology combines systems and process approaches, threshold diagnostics, nonlinear dynamics, scenario modeling, and risk-oriented optimization. Economic capacity is represented as a multidimensional state of financial, resource, operational, portfolio, market-contractual, and stakeholder coordinates. A nonlinear transition model captures inertia, managerial interventions, shock transmission, and cross-component effects. Recovery is completed only after the enterprise enters a non-compensatory admissible domain and remains there during a consolidation horizon. The toolkit includes shock depth, sustainable recovery time, discounted cumulative deficit, recovery velocity and acceleration, completeness, and weighted structural distance. Their joint interpretation distinguishes rapid convergent, delayed, stepwise, recurrent, partial, and transformational trajectories. For a multiproject environment, portfolio reconfiguration is formulated as an optimization problem that maximizes the marginal increase in capacity while accounting for intervention costs, resource constraints, and CVaR of tail losses. An illustrative scenario shows that strategies with similar terminal indicators may differ in cumulative deficit and the economic cost of recovery. Scientific novelty lies in integrating nonlinear dynamics, a stable recovery domain, trajectory invariants, and risk-oriented portfolio reconfiguration. Practical value consists in linking the diagnostic signal to the limiting coordinate, transmission channel, and intervention that reduces recovery time, cumulative deficit, and tail risk. Further research should focus on the empirical estimation of interaction matrices, the calibration of critical thresholds, and the validation of predictive properties. Keywords: economic capacity; recovery trajectory; construction development; multiproject environment; cumulative deficit; portfolio reconfiguration; CVaR; economic diagnostics.