Global Sensitivity and Mathematical Modeling for Zoonotic Lassa Virus Transmission and Disability in Critical Cases in the Light of Fractional Order Model

Source abstract

Lassa fever remains a significant zoonotic threat in West Africa, characterized by complex human-to-human and rodent-to-human transmission pathways and prolonged immune responses. Existing integer-order models often neglect the long-term memory and delayed recovery effects inherent to the disease. In this study, we develop and analyze a fractional-order Caputo model for Lassa fever transmission incorporating disability feedback among recovered individuals. The model captures memory-dependent infection and recovery dynamics, offering a more realistic description of epidemic persistence. The model is symmetric when the fractional approach to unity where it recovers its classical ODE counterpart. Analytical results establish the positivity, boundedness, existence, and uniqueness of solutions, while Picard stability and contraction mapping confirm well-posedness within the fractional framework. A Grünwald–Letnikov discretization scheme is constructed for numerical simulation, validated under varying fractional orders (λ∈[0.7,1]). The results reveal that decreasing the fractional order slows the infection decay rate and prolongs epidemic duration, highlighting the biological significance of memory effects. A global sensitivity analysis based on Latin Hypercube Sampling and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (LHS–PRCC) identifies the rodent-to-human transmission rate (κ1), human-to-human transmission rate (η1), and rodent interaction rate (ξr) as the most influential parameters. These findings provide critical insight into the control and management of Lassa fever through rodent population control, improved recovery rates, and early human intervention. The fractional-order formulation thus extends existing models both mathematically and epidemiologically by capturing delayed dynamics and disability-induced feedback mechanisms.