Mathematical Model of Threats Resistance in the Critical Information Resources Protection System

Source abstract

The main problems of information security of critical information re- sources and causes of their occurrence are considered. The main threats to secu- rity systems of critical information resources are analyzed. Mathematical model of counteraction of internal and external threats to the system of protection of critical information resources of mineral fertilizers production is developed. The process of building a mathematical model of countering the threats in the system of protection of critical information resources with the help of Markov chain. The methodology of finding current threats to data security during their processing is offered. The software module is developed in the Piton program- ming language. These examples calculate the probability of mathematical mod- el of information system in one of four states (the threat did not come; the threat came but was not implemented; the threat has been implemented; the threat came, but it was reflected protection system). Examples of numerical results analysis using proposed techniques clearly show that their use helps to define threats that are relevant to the system being investigated and can be used in practice. The disadvantage of proposed methodology is the need to consider the system behaviour when it comes to each type of threat, individually and inabil- ity to define behaviour on the simultaneous action of several threats. Studying the influence of each threat separately allows to study each of its types in more detail and to determine the probability of which is the greatest occurrence. As a result of exploitation of critical information resources protection systems and substantial changes in composition and quality of modern threats, it is necessary to project and implement information security of the systems taking into ac- count tendencies of cyber threats development.