New Hybrid EC-Promethee Method with Multiple Iterations of Random Weight Ranges: Applied to the Choice of Policing Strategies

Source abstract

The decision-making process is part of everyday life for people and organizations. When modeling the solutions to problems, just as important as the choice of criteria and alternatives is the definition of the weights of the criteria. This study will present a new hybrid method for weighting criteria. The technique combines the ENTROPY and CRITIC methods with the PROMETHE method to create EC-PROMETHEE. The innovation consists of using a weight range per criterion. The construction of a weight range per criterion preserves the characteristics of each technique. Each weight range includes lower and upper limits, which combine to generate random numbers, producing “t” sets of weights per criterion, allowing “t” final rankings to be obtained. The alternatives receive a value corresponding to their position with each ranking generated. At the end of the process, they are ranked in descending order, thus obtaining the final ranking. The method was applied to the decision support problem of choosing policing strategies to reduce crime. The model used a decision matrix with twenty criteria and fourteen alternatives evaluated in seven different scenarios. The results obtained after 10,000 iterations proved consistent, allowing the decision maker to see how each alternative behaved according to the weights used. The practical implication observed concerning traditional models, where a single final ranking is generated for a single set of weights, is the reversal of positions after “t” iterations compared to a single iteration. The method allows managers to make decisions with reduced uncertainty, improving the quality of their decisions. In future research, we propose creating a web tool to make this method easier to use, and propose other tools are produced in Python and R.