Investigating the Impact of Strict Laws on Corruption: A Mathematical Modelling Approach
David Musyoka Kinyili, Dominic Makaa Kitavi
Source abstract
This paper develops a deterministic model that addresses the dynamics of corruption in the Kenyan context. Despite several researchers making effort to develop corruption models, the existing models suffer the shortcomings such as: Failure to capture the complexity of corruption, failure to incorporate strict laws against corruption and adherence to the laws, failure to factor in moral behavior that act against, and failure to fit the models to real data. Therefore, the current study comes in handy to address this gap by developing a mathematical model that addresses the dynamics of corruption and carefully incorporates all the aforementioned limitations of the existing models establishing its novelty. The motivation of the study is that, although anti-corruption bodies with laws have been established, corruption still continues to be deep-rooted in many world regions including Kenya. We compute the corruption reproduction number, denoted by R_0^C. We find that the model possesses a unique corruption-free and a positive corruption-endemic equilibria, locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever R_0^C<1 and R_0^C>1 respectively. The developed model is fitted to real data of corruption reported in Kenya for realism and accurate parameter estimation used for numerical results. Sensitivity analysis results establish that, serious implementation of strict laws, adherence to the laws, and honest behavior substantially reduce the corruption reproduction number to less that unity, eradicating corruption. Simulations indicate that thorough implementation of strict laws against corruption can eradicate corruption in a relatively short time. Further, the aspect of obedience to the laws and the behavioral practice of trust and honesty contribute significantly to eliminating corruption. The findings obtained inform policy on anti-corruption agencies to formulate/strengthen and implement/enforce stringent laws against corruption in order to curtail it, create serious public awareness on corruption and involve the church in instilling the qualities of trust and honesty to eliminate corruption.
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