A Mathematical Model to Assess the Health and Economic Impacts of Voluntary Licensing Through the Medicines Patent Pool

Source abstract

This paper evaluates the health and economic consequences of Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) licensing schemes for products with voluntary licensing through a theoretical model of the diffusion and impact of MPP licensed products against a baseline where such licenses do not occur. The justification for the study stems from the fact that MPP licenses have been around for a while, and it is therefore about time that someone sought to put a figure on the value of such licenses by way of the impact they have on the number of patients being served, the costs involved and the resultant health outcomes. It incorporates epidemiology data, treatment uptake ratios, drug cost, and health status; it employs differential equations to model the interactions between price cuts, treatment rates and deaths. Specific factors including the incidence of the disease, the price drop resulting from generic entry, and the elasticity of demand for treatment were obtained from international health care research and literature. The evaluation of the results shows that between the years 2017 to 2032 the MPP license dolutegravir new license for the drug generated an extra of 15.5 million patients’ year of treatment, averting 151,839 deaths, and amounting to $3.07 billion in economic saving. Likewise, the license for daclatasvir between 2015 and 2026 helped treat more 428,244 patients, preventing 4,070 death and saving$107.6 million.