On model error in variational data assimilation

Source abstract

Abstract The problem of variational data assimilation for a nonlinear evolution model is formulated as an optimal control problem to find the initial condition. The optimal solution (analysis) error arises due to the errors in the input data (background and observation errors). Under the Gaussian assumption the optimal solution error covariance can be constructed using the Hessian of the auxiliary data assimilation problem. The aim of this paper is to study the evolution of model errors via data assimilation. The optimal solution error covariances are derived in the case of imperfect model and for the weak constraint formulation, when the model euations determine the cost functional.