From Trash to Policy: Integrated Mathematical and Economic Modeling for Urban Waste Management and Public Health Optimization in Minna Metropolis.
Umar Chado Doko, Bala Abubakar, Isa Alhssan, Usman Garba, Habiba Yerima, Mathias Yisa
Source abstract
Rapid urbanization in developing cities has significantly strained municipal solid waste management systems, leading to intertwined environmental, economic, and public health challenges. This study develops an integrated mathematical–economic modeling framework to enhance waste management efficiency and reduce disease transmission in Minna Metropolis, Nigeria. The model is formulated as a coupled system combining waste accumulation dynamics with a SEIR-type epidemiological structure, capturing the relationship between waste exposure and infection risk. Optimal control techniques are incorporated to evaluate key policy interventions, including improved waste collection, recycling adoption, public awareness, and regulatory enforcement. The model further integrates cost functions and institutional constraints to reflect real-world municipal decision-making processes. Numerical simulations demonstrate that coordinated implementation of these interventions significantly reduces infection prevalence and operational inefficiencies. In particular, results indicate that integrated waste management strategies can reduce waste-related disease incidence by over 40% while ensuring cost-effective resource allocation. The findings highlight the importance of linking epidemiological dynamics with economic optimization in urban policy design. The proposed framework provides a practical decision-support tool for sustainable waste management and offers insights applicable to other rapidly growing cities facing similar challenges.
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