Power System Portfolio Selection and CO2 Emission Management Under Uncertainty Driven by a DNN-Based Stochastic Model

Source abstract

A model is proposed to investigate the effects of power generation source diversification and CO2 emission control in the presence of dispatchable fossil fuel sources and non-dispatchable carbon-free renewables. In a stochastic environment in which three random factors are considered, namely fossil fuels (gas and coal) and CO2 prices, we discuss a planning methodology for power system portfolio selection that integrates the non-dispatchable renewables available in a given energy system and optimally combines cost, risk and CO2 emissions. By combining the deep neural network probabilistic forecasting of fossil fuel path prices with a geometric Brownian motion model for describing the CO2 price dynamics, we simulate a wide range of plausible market scenarios. Results show that under CO2 price volatility, optimal portfolios shift toward cleaner energy sources, even in the absence of explicit emission targets, highlighting the implicit regulatory power of volatility. The results suggest that incorporating CO2 price volatility through market mechanisms can serve as an effective policy tool for driving decarbonization. Our model offers a flexible and reproducible approach to support policy design in energy planning under uncertainty.