Bitcoin Price Regime Shifts: A Bayesian MCMC and Hidden Markov Model Analysis of Macroeconomic Influence
Vaiva Pakštaitė, Ernestas Filatovas, Mindaugas Juodis, Remigijus Paulavičius
Source abstract
Bitcoin’s role in global finance has rapidly expanded with increasing institutional participation, prompting new questions about its linkage to macroeconomic variables. This study thoughtfully integrates a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) covariate selection process within homogeneous and non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to analyze 16 macroeconomic and Bitcoin-specific factors from 2016 to 2024. The proposed method integrates likelihood penalties to refine variable selection and employs a rolling-window bootstrap procedure for 1-, 5-, and 30-step-ahead forecasting. Results indicate a fundamental shift: while early Bitcoin pricing was primarily driven by technical and supply-side factors (e.g., halving cycles, trading volume), later periods exhibit stronger ties to macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rates and major stock indices. Heightened volatility aligns with significant events—including regulatory changes and institutional announcements—underscoring Bitcoin’s evolving market structure. These findings demonstrate that integrating Bayesian MCMC within a regime-switching model provides robust insights into Bitcoin’s deepening connection with traditional financial forces.
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