Evaluation of Eleven Numerical Methods for Determining Weibull Parameters for Wind Energy Generation in the Caribbean Region of Colombia
Samuel Vega-Zuñiga, Juan Gabriel Rueda-Bayona, Adalberto Ospino-Castro
Source abstract
The two-parameter Weibull probability density function (PDF) is widely utilized by different researchers and engineers to fit wind speed data for statistical analysis and modeling. The characterization of wind resources in the frequency and probability domain is necessary to estimate the power output potential of new wind energy projects. Considering that exist a variety of Weibull equations evidenced in the literature review, this article evaluates 11 different methods to calculate the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull PDF. In this sense, it was written an algorithm within a Matlab function that solves the 11 methods for calculating the Weibull PDF parameters. Wind speed data extracted from the ERA5 database was used as input data for applying the proposed algorithm, and statistical parameters such as the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE), and chi-square test (X2) we utilized for assessing the performance of each one of the 11 methods for modeling the wind distribution. The statistical results pointed that the numerical iteration methods (e.g. maximum likelihood method) showed better results than parameterized equations such as the Graphical Method, hence, this research recommends the implicit methods for determining Weibull PDF parameters of wind speed data.
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