Integrating Human Mobility Models with Epidemic Modeling: A Framework for Generating Synthetic Temporal Contact Networks

Source abstract

High-resolution temporal contact networks are useful ingredients for realistic epidemic simulations. Existing solutions typically rely either on empirical studies that capture fine-grained interactions via Bluetooth or wearable sensors in confined settings, or on large-scale simulation frameworks that model entire populations using generalized assumptions. However, for most realistic modeling of epidemic spread and the evaluation of countermeasures, there is a critical need for highly resolved, temporal contact networks that encompass multiple venues without sacrificing the intricate dynamics of real-world contacts. This paper presents an integrated approach for generating such networks by coupling Bayesian-optimized human mobility models (HuMMs) with a state-of-the-art epidemic simulation framework. Our primary contributions are twofold: First, we embed empirically calibrated HuMMs into an epidemic simulation environment to create a parameterizable, adaptive engine for producing synthetic, high-resolution, population-wide temporal contact network data. Second, we demonstrate through empirical evaluations that our generated networks exhibit realistic interaction structures and infection dynamics. In particular, our experiments reveal that while variations in population size do not affect the underlying network properties—a crucial feature for scalability—altering location capacities naturally influences local connectivity and epidemic outcomes. Additionally, sub-graph analyses confirm that different venue types display distinct network characteristics consistent with their real-world contact patterns. Overall, this integrated framework provides a scalable and empirically grounded method for epidemic simulation, offering a powerful tool for generating and simulating contact networks.