Mathematical model of classification and ranking of occupational risk factors for fire and rescue personnel units during response to man-made disasters

Source abstract

Purpose. Occupational risk management in fire and rescue unit operations during response to man-made disasters requires objective assessment methods capable of accounting for the complex and dynamic impact of multiple hazardous factors. Existing approaches are often descriptive in nature and rely on expert judgments, which can introduce subjectivity into operational planning and the selection of protective equipment, particularly under time constraints. Methods. The article is based on methods of mathematical statistics, set theory, and cluster analysis. To rank the factors, a weighted coefficient method was applied, taking into the account the frequency of occurrence, severity of consequences, and the potential for combined exposure. Findings. The article presents a mathematical model for classifying and ranking dominant occupational risk factors, based on statistical analysis of incident and injury data among personnel of fire and rescue units. Research application field. The model makes it possible to identify key (dominant) hazardous factors for typical incident scenarios and calculate the integral risk index for the operation. Conclusions. The developed approach provides a quantitative, reproducible basis for substantiating decisions on operational tactics, equipment, and safety measures, thereby contributing to the minimization of risks to the lives and health of rescuers. Key words: occupational risk, fire and rescue units, man-made disaster, mathematical model, dangerous fire factors, statistical analysis, integral risk index, classification