Modeling and Spatial Analysis of Fugitive Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Coal and Oil Industries in Ukraine

Source abstract

In addition to existing national inventories for greenhouse gases, there is a need to create spatially explicit datasets at both the level of major emission sources and at the grid level. The aim of this research was therefore to create high-resolution datasets of fugitive emissions of carbon dioxide and methane from the coal and oil industries in Ukraine, for the period 2015 to 2023. The study covered emissions from coal mining and processing, coal coking, oil exploration and production, venting and flaring, oil refining, and the transportation of oil through pipelines. Maps of emission sources were created, including coal mines, coke plants, operating oil fields, oil refineries, and oil pipeline pumping stations. Mathematical models of emission processes were developed using statistical and publicly available activity data and emission factors. The study covered both government-controlled territories and temporarily occupied territories, with expert estimates used where official data were unavailable. For the period under analysis, total fugitive emissions from the coal industry amounted to 126.8 Mt CO2e, while for the oil industry the value was 18.8 Mt CO2e. The highest emissions arose from coal mining and processing (125.6 Mt CO2e). With the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022, refineries and main coke plants ceased operation due to destruction. The relative uncertainty in average annual emissions was 43.6% (95% confidence interval). The spatial datasets established in this research for fugitive emissions from the coal and oil industries should form an integral part of the spatial inventory of greenhouse gas emissions that is being created in Ukraine.