A mathematical model for predicting the development of potato tubers in private subsidiary farms depending on agrometeorological environmental factors
A. A. Shesteperov, G. S. Shchitkov
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Source: Crossref
Published: Sep 21, 2026
DOI: 10.31016/1998-8435-2026-20-3-491-502
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The purpose of the research is to develop a mathematical model for predicting the development of potato tuberosis in private subsidiary farms, depending on agrometeorological environmental factors. Materials and methods. The created database includes original material based on the results of tuberous analysis of potatoes in private subsidiary farms in the village of Ulyakhino in the Gus-Khrustalny district of the Vladimir region, for 21 years, in the form of the dynamics of ditylenchosis in potato tubers selected in spring and autumn, as well as agrometeorological data: average air temperature for the period May–September, soil temperature at a depth of 10 cm (April–September, December–March); maximum depth of soil freezing; freezing period (days); minimum temperature in winter period; minimum and maximum snow cover height; precipitation (annual average); precipitation for the period April–September; number of days with precipitation for May–September from 1998 to 2019. All these data are presented in the form of tables with numerical values. The correlation and regression analysis of the collected material was carried out on a computer using the MS Excel program. Results and discussion. Verbal, conceptual, and mathematical models have been developed for predicting the development of potato child farming in private subsidiary farms (potato monoculture) depending on agrometeorological environmental factors. The developed mathematical models for predicting the development of potato tubers in private subsidiary farms, depending on agrometeorological factors, showed a fairly good adequacy (coefficient of determination R 2 = 0.72). The reliability of the mathematical model, i.e. the difference between the calculated data and the retrospective data, averages 14.1%. The adequacy of the model based on the correlation coefficient between the result of the forecast of the development of DZ and the actual data was 0.85.
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