Effective Chebotarev-Sato-Tate distribution for Abelian varieties with applications

Source abstract

We establish a uniform effective Chebotarev-Sato-Tate estimate for abelian varieties, conditional on the Mumford-Tate conjecture and the standard analytic conjectures for L-functions attached to the irreducible representations of the Chebotarev-Sato-Tate group. The proof uses spectral majorants and minorants of indicator functions. For regions whose boundaries have finite upper (d-1)-dimensional Minkowski content, the resulting exponent improves that in Bucur et al. (Theorem 1.1, 2024) whenever the Sato-Tate group has rank greater than one. We establish uniform estimates for regions and finite Galois extensions that vary with the counting parameter, and for prime-dependent regions satisfying an explicit variation condition. As an application, we obtain a conditional upper bound for the number of primes at which a weight-two newform with a quadratic coefficient field has a rational Fourier coefficient. We also formulate a discrepancy conjecture, motivated by a probabilistic model, that implies the asymptotic predicted by Murty (Conjecture 3.4, 1999).