Twenty years of mathematical modeling in ecology: a thematic architecture and macroecological trend analysis

Source abstract

Abstract Mathematical modeling in ecology is indispensable for deciphering ecological complexity and guiding sustainable resource governance, yet its explicit alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) remains insufficiently quantified. Instead of conducting an unrestricted meta-synthesis of the entire field of quantitative biology, this work offers a detailed scientometric and thematic audit of 229 peer-reviewed journal papers indexed in Scopus from 2005 to 2025 (until August 6, 2025) dealing with the explicit formalization of the link between mathematics and ecology. Integrating bibliometric profiling, keyword network co-occurrence, and automated SciVal SDG classification, the analysis delineates three core thematic architectures: biological foundations and experimental calibration, epidemiological and human dimensions, and theoretical mathematical dynamics. Empirical mapping reveals that 116 articles directly align with UN targets, exhibiting heavy concentration in Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3, 40%), Life on Land (SDG 15, 26%), and Decent Work and Economic Growth (SDG 8, 16%). In contrast, there is a continuing presence of target deficiencies at the techno-ecological interface, including in circular bioeconomies, industrial footprints, and clean energy transitions. This study defines methodological strengths, thematic deficits, and a multi-level framework for the implementation of quantitative ecological modeling and transformation to policy mechanisms under the UN 2030 Agenda.