MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MONSOON RAINFALL PREDICTION FOR FLOOD EARLY WARNING IN THE HAOR BASIN AND CHITTAGONG HILL TRACTS
Md. Mehedi Hasan, Hasibul Hasan, Tasnia Rahman, Nayeemur Rahman, Lasker Ershad Ali, Md. Haider Ali Biswas
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Published: Jun 1, 2026
DOI: 10.58532/nbennur3240c5
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The Haor Basin and Chittagong Hill Tracts region of Bangladesh are geographically and climatically highly vulnerable. Every year, floods caused by sudden landslides and excessive rainfall during the monsoon season cause extensive damage to agriculture and other infrastructure. People here live a risky life, because weather forecast models often provide wrong signals. This research develops a high-resolution precipitation forecast model that is able to provide accurate forecasts by analyzing the weather of the Haor region and the Chittagong Hill Tracts region. We use discrete regression models and use MATLAB for graphical representation. It generally provides accurate warnings before the flood begins in the Haor areas, while it can accurately predict the exact location and time of heavy rainfall for the Chittagong Hill Tracts. The proposed high-resolution precipitation forecast model can help to protect life from the risk of landslides and floods. In our results, the error in the predicted data obtained from our forecasting model for 2024 is 12.14%, and the error in 2025 is 19.99%. In fact, this model can serve as a very effective tool for disaster management authorities and local people.
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