Measuring the mobility impact on the COVID-19 pandemic
Thyago Celso C. Nepomuceno, Thalles Vitelli Garcez, Lúcio Camara e Silva, Artur Paiva Coutinho
Source abstract
<abstract> <p>This assessment aims at measuring the impact of different location mobility on the COVID-19 pandemic. Data over time and over the 27 Brazilian federations in 5 regions provided by Google's COVID-19 community mobility reports and classified by place categories (retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residences) are autoregressed on the COVID-19 incidence in Brazil using generalized linear regressions to measure the aggregate dynamic impact of mobility on each socioeconomic category. The work provides a novel multicriteria approach for selecting the most appropriate estimation model in the context of this application. Estimations for the time gap between contagion and data disclosure for public authorities' decision-making, estimations regarding the propagation rate, and the marginal mobility contribution for each place category are also provided. We report the pandemic evolution on the dimensions of cases and a geostatistical analysis evaluating the most critical cities in Brazil based on optimized hotspots with a brief discussion on the effects of population density and the carnival.</p> </abstract>
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