MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF DRY FISH VALUE CHAIN AND ITS SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF DUBLAR CHAR IN THE SUNDARBANS

Source abstract

The production of dry fish in Dublar Char, which is in the Sundarbans, is an important source of income to the coastal communities and has a valuable impact on Bangladesh's economy. The objective of this research is to analyse the relationship between ecological sustainability, economic exploitation, and logistical inefficiencies in the dry fish of the Dublar char in the Sundarbans. In the 2024-2025 season, this sector is expected to generate revenue of 6 crore BDT, the economic status of the fishermen has not improved. To analyze the study, three different mathematical systems are built on the basis of the secondary data and empirical observations on site. According to the Bio-economic Stability Model, the current harvesting practises are above the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), which undermines the sustainability of the fish stocks. The Debt-Trap Dynamics Model analyses that the credit system of Debt-Trap, where high monthly interest rates of 5-10% are higher than the profit share, reinforces indebtedness, consequently. The Value Chain Decay Model indicates that after harvesting, inefficient traditional processing techniques face losses of 15-20 percent after harvesting. The analysis indicates a vicious circle that compels debt, economic overexploitation, and logistical unproductivity, further decreasing returns. The great goal is to have developed a mathematical analysis that proves that by focusing on institutional credit and implementing modern processing infrastructure can be effectively used to break the debt cycle, and secure both economic sustainability for the fisherman and ecological sustainability in the Sundarbans.