Invasion dynamics with vanishing fitness for a quasi-critical birth-death process

Source abstract

We study the invasion dynamics of populations exhibiting positive density-dependent effects. We start with a single individual and consider a single-type birth and death process. The initial individual growth rate vanishes but it increases with the population density, proportionally to the number of individuals divided by a scaling parameter $K$. Before reaching the macroscopic scale~$K$, the population process is almost critical. %{\color{red} Although the process remains asymptotically critical throughout the invasion phase, three distinct dynamical regimes emerge.} We prove that the probability for the population to reach the macroscopic level $K$ decreases as $1/\sqrt{K}$ as $K$ goes to infinity. We also describe the associated trajectories and show that invasion can be split into three time periods. First, the process needs to escape from zero, and conditioning on survival, it grows linearly until the order $\sqrt{K}$. The scaled process is approximated by a diffusion, as for critical branching process, with an additional drift term coming from cooperation, which breaks the branching property. Second, in intermediate scale $\sqrt{K}$, we observe another diffusion, surviving with positive probability, without conditioning. Finally, beyond $\sqrt{K}$ scale, the process can be approximated by a classical macroscopic ODE limit. The proof of the first phase involves change of probability and characterization of uniform integrability of martingales, while the two other phases rely on uniform approximations on polynomial time scales.