probability-statistics / Random matrix theory

The Ellipsoid Fitting Conjecture

Given $n$ independent standard Gaussian vectors in $\mathbb{R}^d$, an ellipsoid fit is a positive semidefinite matrix $S$ with $x_i' S x_i = d$ for every $i$. Saunderson, Parrilo and Willsky conjectured that this semidefinite feasibility problem has a sharp threshold at $n \sim \frac{d^2}{4}$. Proved: below the threshold a fit exists with probability tending to one, above it none does.

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probability-statisticsAug 10, 2026Significance 30/100Registry: unreviewed

The Ellipsoid Fitting Conjecture

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Closes both gaps left open by Bandeira and Maillard: exact fitting, and removal of the operator-norm constraint. The threshold turns out to be governed by the statistical dimension d(d+1)/4 of the PSD cone.

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Given $n$ independent standard Gaussian vectors in $\mathbb{R}^d$, an ellipsoid fit is a positive semidefinite matrix $S$ with $x_i' S x_i = d$ for every $i$. Saunderson, Parrilo and Willsky conjectured that this semidefinite feasibility problem has a sharp threshold at $n \sim \frac{d^2}{4}$. Proved: below the threshold a fit exists with probability tending to one, above it none does.

Closes both gaps left open by Bandeira and Maillard: exact fitting, and removal of the operator-norm constraint. The threshold turns out to be governed by the statistical dimension d(d+1)/4 of the PSD cone.

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