probability-statistics / Stationary stochastic processes

The Ibragimov–Iosifescu conjecture for φ-mixing sequences

Astra constructs a strictly stationary real process Xt=ξt+K(ξt1,ξt2,), X_t=\xi_t+K(\xi_{t-1},\xi_{t-2},\ldots), where the innovations ξt\xi_t are i.i.d. Gaussian variables convolved with a symmetric rare-spike law, and KK is bounded, continuous, and odd. The process is φ\varphi-mixing, centered, square-integrable, and satisfies Var(Sn). \operatorname{Var}(S_n)\to\infty. Nevertheless there are times njn_j\to\infty such that SnjVar(Snj)0 \frac{S_{n_j}}{\sqrt{\operatorname{Var}(S_{n_j})}}\to0 in probability. Therefore the normalized sums cannot converge in distribution to N(0,1)N(0,1). The same example also rules out Iosifescu's stronger weak invariance-principle conjecture, since Brownian convergence would imply the CLT at time 11.

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probability-statisticsSep 5, 2026Significance 40/100Registry: lean checked

The Ibragimov–Iosifescu conjecture for φ-mixing sequences

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Astra constructs a strictly stationary real process Xt=ξt+K(ξt1,ξt2,), X_t=\xi_t+K(\xi_{t-1},\xi_{t-2},\ldots), where the innovations ξt\xi_t are i.i.d. Gaussian variables convolved with a symmetric rare-spike law, and KK is bounded, continuous, and odd. The process is φ\varphi-mixing, centered, square-integrable, and satisfies Var(Sn). \operatorname{Var}(S_n)\to\infty. Nevertheless there are times njn_j\to\infty such that…

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Astra constructs a strictly stationary real process Xt=ξt+K(ξt1,ξt2,), X_t=\xi_t+K(\xi_{t-1},\xi_{t-2},\ldots), where the innovations ξt\xi_t are i.i.d. Gaussian variables convolved with a symmetric rare-spike law, and KK is bounded, continuous, and odd. The process is φ\varphi-mixing, centered, square-integrable, and satisfies Var(Sn). \operatorname{Var}(S_n)\to\infty. Nevertheless there are times njn_j\to\infty such that SnjVar(Snj)0 \frac{S_{n_j}}{\sqrt{\operatorname{Var}(S_{n_j})}}\to0 in probability. Therefore the normalized sums cannot converge in distribution to N(0,1)N(0,1). The same example also rules out Iosifescu's stronger weak invariance-principle conjecture, since Brownian convergence would imply the CLT at time 11.

Astra constructs a strictly stationary real process Xt=ξt+K(ξt1,ξt2,), X_t=\xi_t+K(\xi_{t-1},\xi_{t-2},\ldots), where the innovations ξt\xi_t are i.i.d. Gaussian variables convolved with a symmetric rare-spike law, and KK is bounded, continuous, and odd. The process is φ\varphi-mixing, centered, square-integrable, and satisfies Var(Sn). \operatorname{Var}(S_n)\to\infty. Nevertheless there are times njn_j\to\infty such that SnjVar(Snj)0 \frac{S_{n_j}}{\sqrt{\operatorname{Var}(S_{n_j})}}\to0 in probability. Therefore the normalized sums cannot converge in distribution to N(0,1)N(0,1). The same example also rules out Iosifescu's stronger weak invariance-principle conjecture, since Brownian convergence would imply the CLT at time 11.

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The Ibragimov–Iosifescu conjecture for φ-mixing sequences — Mathematical Frontier Network